By Stephen MacLeod | Boston Business Journal | March 12, 2026
A proposed rent control initiative could cost Massachusetts billions in lost property taxes, according to a new analysis.
The ballot question would cap annual rent increases at a rate tied to the Consumer Price Index, or no more than 5% per year, statewide. The proposal includes exemptions for owner-occupied buildings with four or fewer units, and for newly constructed buildings during the first 10 years.
A new study from the Tufts Center for State Analysis released Thursday found that if the question makes it onto the ballot and passes, it could cost the state hundreds of billions by depressing real estate values statewide.
That shrinking of the residential property tax base could have a massive impact on towns and cities across the state, since their budgets rely heavily on property taxes, according to the report.
In Boston, values could shrink around 9% within three years, creating a budget shortfall of $160 million for the city. In Chelsea, Everett and Revere, property values could drop between 15% and 27% over 10 years. In the Gateway Cities, tax revenues could drop 8% to 9%.
The report, sponsored by the real estate broker group Greater Boston Real Estate Board, found that losses would only increase with time, totaling $300 billion in lost Massachusetts property values over a decade, a 14% drop.
The loss of revenue would take huge jumps in taxes to replace, with the report estimating it would take 8.2% increase in rural areas, 10% increase in suburban areas and 19% in urban areas. Boston in particular would be hit hard, as the city has already been dealing with property tax shortfalls caused by office buildings falling in value after the pandemic.
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